?

Log in

No account? Create an account

Previous Entry | Next Entry

Apr. 14th, 2011

The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly ImprobableThe Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

My rating: 4 of 5 stars


This insightful book is written in a strong condescending tone. The author does not bear fools lightly, and he finds many as he explores the topics of risk, prediction, and probability. The tone may put many readers off, which is too bad because Taleb has important, thought-provoking things to say here about "epistemic arrogance," i.e., we think we know more than we actually do. We rely on bell curves and so-called experts who apply inappropriate methodologies and measurements to questionable data. In fact, the major unpredictable events (i.e, those that would be multiple standard deviations from the norm on those kind of measures) are the most important, most influential, and (from at least his standpoint as a financial expert) the most profitable or damning, not to mention more common than we care to admit. There are times I wanted a bit more focus to his writing; sometimes he jumps around, breaking the flow, but he only does this because he is clearly passionate about the topic. Stimulating and interesting.



One caveat: One of the major criticisms I've heard of this book is that it doesn't add much to his earlier work, Fooled by Randomness. I have not read his earlier work, so this is all new to me.



View all my reviews

Tags:

Comments

( 2 comments — Leave a comment )
kenakeri
Apr. 14th, 2011 03:11 pm (UTC)
This is weird. Someone recommended this book to me on Monday, but I hadn't time to search for it yet. Thanks for the review :)
thndrstd
Apr. 14th, 2011 03:17 pm (UTC)
You're welcome. Enjoy.
( 2 comments — Leave a comment )

Profile

polar bear
thndrstd
Thunderstud

Latest Month

November 2017
S M T W T F S
   1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
2627282930  

Tags

Page Summary

Powered by LiveJournal.com
Designed by Tiffany Chow